Author: Ravi Chadha

Canada’s 6-mo housing-starts trend ↓~1% MoM in Mid-Q3 to ~244K annualized units, while the monthly annualized pace stayed essentially flat near 229K.
In larger Canadian centres, actual starts totaled 17.7K in Mid-Q3, ↓~2% yearly, bringing the current year’s first eight months to 149.5K, ↓~4%.
Homes under construction in Canadian centres above 50K population edged ↓<1% MoM to 371.7K units, showing a still-large pipeline despite slight cooling.
Completions softened faster, ↓~11% MoM to 17.6K units, while approved permits not yet started ↑<1% to 142.4K, signaling future projects remained queued.
The national housing outlook said starts were still elevated versus recent years, but the downward trend was expected to continue as construction moderated toward year-end.

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Canada's affordability reading reached ~41% in Q2 2026 after an 11th straight quarterly improvement, helped by lower prices, lower borrowing costs, and rising incomes.
Even after ~13 ppts of improvement from the recent peak, ownership stayed difficult nationally, with housing costs still taking roughly two-fifths of avg. household income.
The measure may look somewhat better than many households feel because it uses avg. disposable income, not median income, which can overstate affordability.
A bank economist said the recent reset reflected earlier rate cuts, a ~20% national price decline from the 2022 peak, and stronger personal incomes.
Looking ahead, slow income gains and limited rate relief leave more of the adjustment to prices, making further national declines still possible.

Canada’s housing market has been edging toward recovery since Early-Q2, with resales improving, inventory leveling off, and prices either stabilizing or easing more slowly.
The bank expected 2026 home resales to ↓~4% to 453.2K and benchmark prices to ↓~2% to $794.2K, despite the improving recent trend.
For 2027, the bank forecast resales ↑~7% to 483.6K and benchmark values ↑400K Canadian households may not have formed since 2019 as many postponed buying decisions.
The outlook depends on affordability, steady growth, and stronger confidence, but the bank said rates likely bottomed and trade tensions could still disrupt progress.

Small-scale infill had been taking a larger role in housing starts, even though larger developments still delivered most new construction across established neighborhoods.
Zoning changes allowing more homes on existing lots suggested supply could shift upward, especially where infill rules became more permissive within established neighborhoods.
The broader housing pattern showed more building on previously developed land, with new construction becoming denser and ground-oriented homes representing a smaller share.
Recent policy changes helped enable more missing middle housing, but project momentum still depended on fees, approval timelines, building rules, and financing.
Small-scale infill emerged as an important source of ground-oriented homes, while its longer-term growth still hinged on whether projects remained financially viable.

Nearly half of Canadians planning to buy within 2 yr said now was the right time, even as ~three-quarters said economic uncertainty made them cautious.
Optimism centered on affordability: ~six in 10 expected lower prices to help them buy, and just over half said interest rates supported that view.
More than half believed the window was small before prices climbed again, and nearly half expected interest rates to rise in 2026, pushing action.
Rising costs squeezed savings, and confidence stayed limited: inflation reduced saving for ~seven in 10, while fewer than half of intended buyers felt ready.
Prospective buyers and renewal households largely said expert advice was essential for major ownership decisions, especially as many weighed how higher rates could affect affordability.

Across BC, standing inventory totaled 6.7K homes, including 5.5K condos, and the count covered condos, townhomes, plus some multiplex units provincewide.
Among tracked BC cities, Burnaby led with 1.21K unsold homes, followed by Vancouver at 1.02K, Surrey at 798, and Coquitlam at 620.
Richmond recorded 396 units, Kelowna 372, Langley Township 276, New Westminster 224, and Delta 211, showing inventory spread well beyond BC's largest markets.
Additional BC counts included Langford 188, Esquimalt 173, the City of North Vancouver 135, Abbotsford 118, and Chilliwack 100; listed cities totaled 5.84K.
A common presale narrative blamed mainly studios and one-beds, but broader BC size and avg. price data pointed to a different story.